A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
